Analysing Sustainable Urban Transport and land use - Modelling tools and appraisal frameworks

Projekt:

Bedömning av långsiktiga effekter av ekonomiska styrmedel i transportsystemet

Sammanfattning:
Sustainable development and climate change is high on the agenda
for most cities around the world today. Urban transport is at the
heart of these changes. Increasingly, it is recognised that not only is
the emission of pollutants and greenhouse gases a problem, but also
the detrimental eects of congestion and social exclusion. In order to
address these issues, it will be necessary for cities to make strategic
long term decisions regarding the future infrastructure and land use,
not only in terms of what will be built, but also on measures that aect
how these systems are used.
This thesis is focused on the decision support tools that we need in
order to make well informed decisions. Models that predict the performance
of future scenarios, and appraisal frameworks that help evaluate
whether these outcomes are desirable or not. The rst two papers experiment
with dierent ways of bringing some aspects of sustainability
into the appraisal frameworks used to analyse long term strategies. Paper
I addresses intergenerational fairness, and Paper II focuses on the
emission of greenhouse gases. Paper III develops a model, Scapes, that
can help us to better understand the daily travel behaviour, through
an activity based approach. By explicitly modelling space-time constraints,
and travel time uncertainty in a microeconomic framework,
we can get a better understanding of how people can respond to, and
value, changes in the transport system. Papers IV and V describes a
new integrated land use and transport model, LandScapes.
The policy implications from the studies in Papers I, II, and V
are that it will be very dicult for Stockholm to reduce its emissions
of CO2. Particularly, predicted economic and population growth will
inevitably lead to more transport. It is likely that a range of dierent
policies will be necessary to solve that problem. At the same time, we
must not forget that decreasing CO2 emissions, although important,
is not the only objective Stockholm has. To cope with the increasing
travel demand from a growing population, it may well be necessary to
build new infrastructure as well. This thesis does not prescribe any
such relative valuation between conicting objectives. It only helps
bring them to the fore.
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Författare: Daniel Jonsson
Utgivare: Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan
Utgivningsdatum: 2008-11
Diarienummer: AL90 B 2006:27786
Språk: Engelska
Kontaktperson: Stefan Grudemo, PLee